I’ve been running UGC campaigns for a while now, but I still feel like I’m guessing when it comes to predicting what’s going to go viral, especially across two markets.
We have this process: we create the content, we look at it and think “yeah, this is good,” and then it either resonates or it doesn’t. The post-mortem analysis is great for learning, but by then the budget is spent.
I want to be more predictive. Before we push a campaign live, is there actually a way to gauge viral potential? Are there signals in the content itself—format, messaging, timing—or is it mostly about creator audience alignment and luck?
I’ve been wondering if we should be running smaller test batches with new creators or new content ideas before scaling, but I’m not sure if that’s actually worth the effort or if it’s just another layer of overhead.
What’s your actual process for vetting viral potential? Do you trust your gut, or have you found metrics that actually predict performance?