Помогите разобраться! Планируем выход на новый рынок, но совершенно не понимаю, как прогнозировать продажи без исторических данных. Какие методы используете? Может, есть проверенные подходы или инструменты?
We had a client breaking into a new vertical, and I discovered something cool - analyzing competitors’ content gaps basically became our sales forecast. We mapped what topics they covered against search volume, then used how often they published to estimate market penetration. The topics competitors kept investing in? That’s where real demand was hiding. Gave us solid traffic projections that actually turned into accurate lead forecasts.
Been there. We hit the same wall launching in a market with zero data. What worked was running tiny budget tests on Google, Facebook, and LinkedIn all at once. Each platform provided different CPA and CTR numbers that indicated audience readiness. The kicker? The platform with the lowest CPA in week one remained our best performer for three months straight. Those first signals effectively became our sales forecast.
We hit the same wall jumping into a crowded SaaS market with no data to work with. What saved us was digging into search intent - specifically how people searched for competitor names vs. general category terms. We cross-referenced search volume changes with competitor ad spend (you can see this in Google’s Transparency Center) and found seasonal patterns that basic metrics totally missed. Now we use those SERP shifts to predict our best sales windows.
We launched in a totally new market last year and our usual forecasting was useless. What actually worked was building an email list before launch and running small campaigns to see how people engaged. We tested different value props through automated workflows and tracked open rates by segment. Those early engagement numbers ended up being way better at predicting actual sales than anything else we tried.
We hit this same wall when we entered Eastern Europe with no data. Social listening saved us - we spent three months tracking what people said about competitors and industry terms. The volume and tone told us where demand was. Funny thing: regions where people complained most about existing solutions actually converted best. Market frustration beats enthusiasm as an opportunity signal.