I’ve hit a real wall on this one, and I think it’s because I’m approaching budget allocation with incomplete information.
Here’s the situation: we’re allocating budget between Russia and the US for influencer campaigns, and on paper, one market always looks better. But I suspect that’s partly because we haven’t figured out how to account for all the variables—competitive landscape, seasonal factors, market maturity, partnership quality, and creative fit all play a role that the raw metrics don’t capture.
I started looking into case studies from other brands who’ve tackled cross-market expansion, and I realized that the outliers—the brands that actually scaled successfully—had one thing in common: they weren’t just looking at historical performance data. They were pulling insights from real partnerships, learning what other brands had tried, and borrowing strategies from both markets.
What I’m missing is a systematic way to access those cross-market insights and best practices. I’ve got my own data, but I feel like I’m missing context about what’s actually working in the broader market.
Have you found a reliable method for making budget allocation decisions across markets? How do you balance historical performance with forward-looking strategic opportunities? And where do you actually find case studies or insights from other brands doing similar work?
This is the exact conversation I’m having with clients every quarter. Here’s my framework:
Budget allocation isn’t just about historical ROAS—it’s about opportunity cost and market maturity. I divide the decision into three layers:
Layer 1: Historical Performance (40% weight). What has worked in each market? This is your starting point, but just the start.
Layer 2: Market Opportunity (35% weight). What’s the addressable market size in each region? What’s the growth trajectory? Russia might have lower ROAS but higher growth potential. That matters.
Layer 3: Strategic Positioning (25% weight). Where do you want to be positioned in 12-18 months? Sometimes you allocate budget to build position, not just chase current performance.
I’ve found that brands who follow this framework make smarter allocation decisions because they’re not just optimizing for last quarter—they’re building for next year.
The case study angle is important too. I tell clients: find 3-4 brands similar to yours who’ve already done this expansion. Ask them directly what worked. Most people will share if you ask respectfully.
What’s the current split between your Russia and US budgets? That context matters.
One more thing: community is invaluable here. We have a dozen brands running cross-market campaigns right now, and the collaborative angle—sharing learnings, benchmarks, what didn’t work—accelerates decision-making dramatically. Don’t underestimate the value of just tapping into that pool of collective experience.
The missing data piece you’re feeling is real. Raw performance metrics tell you what happened, not what’s possible. Here’s how I approached it:
I built a comparative analysis matrix that included:
- Historical ROAS (last 6 months)
- Competitor average ROI for each market (industry benchmarks)
- Creator availability and quality in each market (supply-side data)
- Seasonality patterns (adjusted for regional holidays and shopping behaviors)
- Cost of capital (US creator rates vs. Russia creator rates)
Once I had that matrix, budget allocation became a formula: allocate more to the market with the highest opportunity score, not just the highest historical ROAS.
The game-changer was benchmarking. I found industry reports for Russia and US influencer marketing, compared my performance against those benchmarks, and suddenly I could see where I was winning and where I was missing opportunities.
What bothers me about your question is that you’re probably leaving money on the table by not having this comparative data. Have you benchmarked your ROAS against industry standards for each market?
Actually, here’s a practical next step: pull your last 3 months of campaign data and segment it by market, influencer tier, and content type. Then layer in what you know about cost of capital in each market. You’ll probably see patterns that aren’t obvious in the aggregate numbers.
You’re identifying a maturity issue in your allocation process. Let me reframe this: you’re not actually missing data—you’re missing decision framework.
Here’s how I think about it for DTC brands: Budget allocation is a strategic choice, not a data problem. The data informs it, but market dynamics, competitive positioning, and long-term strategic goals drive it.
I’d recommend this approach:
- Establish performance baseline in each market (6-month rolling average)
- Identify your growth constraint in each market (is it creator quality? budget availability? product-market fit?)
- Allocate budget to remove the constraint that’s most limiting
Usually, one market has clearer opportunities than the other. That’s where budget goes, even if the ROAS is slightly lower, because the upside potential is higher.
The case study angle matters here too. I’d reach out to 2-3 CPG or beauty brands who’ve scaled across Russia and US. Their allocation playbooks will be more valuable than any benchmark. What vertical are you in?
When my startup was deciding budget split between markets, I made this way too complicated at first. Then my advisor gave me simple advice: “Allocate to the market where you have the most uncertainty and the highest potential upside.”
We were seeing solid ROAS in Russia (our home market), but we didn’t know if the US could work at scale. So we allocated more budget to US despite lower initial returns, built the playbook, and then scaled it.
Two years later, US is our larger market. But if I’d only looked at year-one ROAS, I’d have never committed enough resources.
Maybe your question isn’t really about which market to fund—maybe it’s about what you’re trying to learn in each market. That changes the allocation calculus entirely.
What’s the strategic question behind your budget decision? That might clarify where the money should go.
From working with brands across markets, I notice that budget decisions often fail because brands don’t actually talk to creators in each market about what’s feasible and what’s hot.
Like, in Russia right now, TikTok creators are absolutely booming and offer way better ROI than Instagram creators. In the US, the dynamic is different. That’s not just performance data—that’s strategic insight that should inform your budget allocation.
Maybe spend time actually talking to creators in each market about what’s working? They’ll tell you where the market is heading, and that’s gold for budget planning.