We made a big mistake last year. We had capacity to expand into one new market—either Argentina or a second US region—and we went with Argentina because we had a connection there. Seemed smart at the time.
Turns out, it wasn’t. Argentina had good potential, but the macro environment was more volatile than we’d accounted for. Meanwhile, the US market opportunity we didn’t pursue would have generated 3x the revenue with half the operational complexity.
Since then, I’ve gotten obsessed with actually building a framework for market prioritization instead of just following gut feel or network connections.
Here’s what I’m using now:
1. Creator ecosystem maturity
Does this market have an established network of creators who understand your vertical? If you’re in e-commerce, are there creators actively selling? If you’re B2B SaaS, are there thought leaders? LATAM markets vary wildly here. Mexico has a much stronger creator ecosystem for consumer brands than Bolivia. This isn’t just about market size—it’s about infrastructure.
2. Media cost vs. purchasing power
This is where a lot of people mess up. A market might have cheap ad spend, but if the purchasing power of the audience is super low, your ROI tanks. We built a simple ratio: average CPM in the market divided by average consumer spending in the relevant category. Markets with lower ratios are better.
3. Competition density
How saturated is your competitive space in that market? If there are 50 competitors already established and crushing it, your differentiation better be really strong. But if you’re one of the first movers in your category in that market, there’s a bigger opportunity. We actually look at LinkedIn, Instagram, and local directories to gauge this.
4. Regulatory and payment infrastructure
This sounds boring, but it’s critical. Can customers actually buy from you? Are payment methods available? Are there data privacy regulations that complicate things? USA—super straightforward. LATAM varies a lot. Brazil has specific rules. Mexico, less so. This isn’t a dealbreaker, but it affects your operational cost and timeline.
5. Language and cultural alignment with existing expertise
Here’s something I hadn’t fully appreciated: the cost of getting things wrong in a new language market is real. If you’ve never operated in Spanish, there’s a learning curve beyond just translation. Do you have team members or advisors who understand the nuances? If not, you’re going to eat costs in the learning phase. Factor this in.
6. Existing demand signals
Before we enter a market, we look at whether there’s actual inbound interest. Do we get cold leads from that market? Are people searching for our solution in that market’s language? We use Google Trends, keyword research tools, and honestly just checking our own CRM to see if there’s already interest we’re not capturing.
7. Partnership potential
This is the secret weapon. Is there a local agency, influencer network, or distribution partner that could accelerate entry? If there’s a strong partner ecosystem, entry is way faster. If you have to build everything from scratch, it’s expensive.
I weighted these differently for different company types. For e-commerce, creator ecosystem and competition density matter more. For B2B, regulatory infrastructure and partnership potential matter way more.
We created a simple scorecard (1-5 scale on each) and scored USA (Austin tech market) vs. Argentina. Austin scored 32/35. Argentina scored 18/35. Should have caught that one.
The hard part is committing to the process instead of going with feeling. But I’ve learned that market prioritization is too expensive to wing.
What signals have you actually found valuable when choosing new markets? And have you had situations where the data said no, but you went anyway—and how did it turn out?